[Diplomacy] Nepal Logjam (Part 2 of 3): Merger of Maoists with Army, Anti-India Campaign, Why Elections are not held

1. Introduction
2. Rehab of Maoist Combatants
3. Problem areas in Maoist Army merger
4. Maoist MNREGA scam
5. Trouble in Cantonment
6. Power struggle within Maoist Party
7. Kiran’s makes new Party
8. Against Prachanda
9. Against Baburam Bhattarai
10. People’s Constitution
11. Against India
12. Anti-India stand of Maoists
13. Babu vs Prachanda @RIO+20
14. Crisis: May 2012
15. Why Election not held?
16. Baburam’s next move

Introduction

Nepal logjam is a three part article series. Make sure you’ve read previous parts, before proceeding further.

Rehab of Nepal Maoists

• After the ceasefire and peace accord, around 20,000 Maoist combatants had been living in the temporary Cantonments. (many of them are child-soldiers).
• they have deposited their weapons to UN-supervised containers.
• 6500 of them were to be absorbed in army. (disregarding educational/age requirements).
• Rest of the Maoist combatants were promised a financial package of 5 to 8 lakh Nepali rupees, each. So they can go back to their village/families and start their lives again with business, farming whatever.
• But then Prachanda and Baburam started demading, “we want 9000 Maoist combatants to be inducted in army.”
• The Army was against this move, fearing such large influx of Maoists inside army, will break its politically neutral character. (+most of them were not meeting the have the age/educational/physical std. criteria.)

Nepali Maoists in UN Cantonment (Photo: Mikel Dunham)

Problem: Nepal Maoist vs Army merger

• While Prachanda demands 9000 Maoists to be recruited in Army but the Ground reality= barely 3000 Maoist rebels actually wanted to join the army.
• Rest of them are uncomfortable working with their former enemy (army), with whom they had fought for more than 10 years.
• Most of them are tired of the “revolution”, they prefer to accept cash, go back home, enjoy family life.
• Most of them are not comfortable with the rigorous training and discipline of regular army.
• Some of the senior Maoist rebels, want to be absorbed as Colonel, Brigadier and other higher posts.
• But in most cases, Army is reluctant to give them such higher ranks, given their old age and low education.
• At the end of 2012, barely 1500 Maoists joined the army.
• Others accepted ca$h, deposited weapons and left for home.

Maoist MNREGA scam

• In the Indian villages, Sarpanch and Patwaari create fake-job cards and withdraw MNREGA money.
• In Nepal, the Maoists had submitted their weapons to UN-Containers and they were living in temporary cantonments.
• They were given food, ration and salary according to their ranks. (This money was from aid given by UN, EU, Germany etc. donors).
• Problem: Many of the Maoists left the camp. Yet money is withdrawn in their name.
• Similarly fake id cards were created and money was siphoned off in ghost accounts.
• The “CAG” of Nepal says “total 1.5 billion Nepali rupees have been paid to “fake combatants” as monthly salary and food allowance by the Government!”
• Prachanda and his favored Maoist commanders are running this “Maoist-MNREGA”scam.
• Prachanda has made truckload of cash out of this game, bought expensive watches, , race-horses, SUV cars, luxury apartments, iphone5 etc.etc.etc.
• This has created deep resentment and internal fighting among the Maoist rank and file.

Trouble in Cantonment

• In several camps, the Maoist combatants started rioting, saying that Pro-Prachanda commanders are making truckload of cash through fake-ID cards (“Maoist-MNREGA”scam.).
• Prime Minister Bhattarai (of Maoist party) had to call in army to stop these riots.
• These has further increased the bitterness among Maoist-cadres, because Bhattarai called up their old enemy (army) for help!
• After this incident, Prachanda had to install metal-detectors at his home, because those angry rebels planning to attack him!

Power struggle within Maoist Party

The hierarchy of Maoist party is like this:

1. Prachanda @Top.
2. Mohan Baidya Kiran + Baburam Bhattarai (Present Prime Minister) as second in line.

Babu is like our Mohan. He doesn’t have many “supporters” in the party. (or perhaps that’s the reason Prachanda made him PM!)
Kiran on the other hand, has sizable following in the Maoist-party. Both hate eachother.

Kiran’s makes new Party

• Many of Maoist cadres and mid-level leaders, are also disillusioned with Prachanda and Baburam, particularly because they are making truckload of cash via corruption (including Maoist MNREGA).
• So, when Kiran left the party, around 1/3^rd of cadres from Prachanda’s original Maoist party also joined Kiran’s party.

Kiran-faction splits from Prachanda’s Party (Photo ⌐Mikel Dunham)

Now Kiran’s stand is following:

Against Prachanda

• Prachanda and Bhattarai are “Red Traitors”.(Gaddaar)
• Prachanda is swindling billions of rupees meant for combatants in different cantonments. (=Maoist MNREGA scam)

Against Baburam Bhattarai

• Babu has sold our country to India by signing the Bilateral Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (BIPPA) agreement.
• Babu has given contract of upgrading Nepalese airports, to an Indian company without inviting bids.
• Only the Army, judiciary and police are legitimate state apparatus. I don’t recognise the legitimacy of the President Ram Baran Yadav or Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai.

People’s Constitution

• Prachanda and Babu are responsible for not delivering People’s Constitution.
• President Ram Baran Yadav only consults the big four political parties. He doesn’t listen to the small parties’ concerns.
• We want an all sides-round table conference to decide the future of Nepal and draft Constitution for Nepal.
• We’ll not mind going back to the armed struggle, if ^this is not done.

Against India

Kiran has also launched anti-India campaign. He says

• India wants to “colonise” our small country Nepal.
• Both Prachanda and Babu are puppets in the hands of Indian Government.
• Nepal’s relations with India must be based on ‘equality’, regarding border-disputes, trade and transit rights.
• India is trying to “culturally invade” Nepal via Hindi films and songs.
• Therefore, we are banning Hindi films in cinema halls and Hindi songs played on FM radio,
• We’ll prevent vehicles with Indian number plates, including goods carriers, from entering Nepal.

Anti-India stand of Maoists

• Please note: Whatever Kiran is saying against India= Nothing new.
• During civil war (1996-2006), Prachanda had also said similar Anti-India things.
• But India helped him broker peace with Government, so he toned down his opposition.
• When Kiran again started agitating against India (ban on Indian films, songs, vehicles), the Nepalese Government (headed by Maoist PM Baburam Bhattarai), ordered the police to take strict action against these rowdy elements.

Experts believe that Kiran is intentionally doing this “Anti-India” campaign, with following objectives in his mind

1. India contacts him, pays him some cash to keep his mouth shut OR
2. India helps him get a plump ministerial position in Baburam’s cabinet OR directly makes Kiran the PM.
3. India starts looking @Kiran as the “permanent-alternative” to Prachanda/Baburam. Then India will start showering money and support to him, just like President Obama does to Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan.

Babu vs Prachanda @RIO+20

• Recall that Kiran left the party because Prachanda did not remove Babu from PM’s post.
• But that doesn’t mean Babu and Prachanda are best friends like Jai and Veeru.
• Most of the time, Babu doesn’t do as directed by Prachanda. (Unlike our PM to Madam-ji.)
• For example in July 2012, RIO+20 summit was held. (we have already covered that Summit, click me)
• Prachanda had ordered Baburam not to attend this RIO+20 summit.
• Still Baburam went to the summit.
• Why?
• Because Baburam wanted to meet Indian PM+ Chinese Premier and secure their support, saying “I’m in charge of Nepal. No need to talk with other players. I’ll get whatever you want. But please don’t support others (including Prachanda lolz!)”

Crisis: May 2012

• So far: The Constituent Assembly of Nepal, is unable to deliver a new Constitution. Because there is severe difference between Maoist party and other parties.
• Right now Baburam Bhattarai of Maoist Party is the Prime Minister.
• And Supreme Court had ordered that Constituent Assembly will be dissolved in May 2012. (=Baburam will cease to be Prime minister and new election must be held.)
• But Baburam Bhattarai plays a new trick: He passes a resolution to extend Constituent Assembly’s life by 3 more months.
• This goes against the order of Supreme Court.
• So, President Ram Baran Yadav starts taking legal opinion on what to do next.
• The legal-experts advice him to remove this Baburam Bhattarai and call for new elections.
• Finally President Ram Baran Yadav removed Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai from his post, but asked him to continue as a caretaker till an alternative arrangement is made.

Why Election not held?

So far,

1. 2008 Elections were held for CA.
2. CA had to deliver Constitution.(by 2010)
3. But it did not deliver result.
4. May 2012: President Ram Baran Yadav dissolves the CA, as per Supreme Court order.
5. President also removes Baburam as PM, but asks him to continue as caretaker prime minister, until new arrangements are made.

• The political parties, fail to reach consensus. So Baburam continues being a caretaker PM.
• President Ram Baran Yadav extends the deadline. Makes a trip to New Delhi. (December 2012)
• But India didnt give any open support. So he returns empty handed.

Now caretaker Prime Minister Baburam says “we’ll hold election somewhere in April-May 2013!”

• In the meantime, he is behaving like a full-fledged Prime minister, and has been taking major decisions on hydel projects, foreign investment and promotions of security officials, besides loaning private companies huge sums of money from national deposit schemes.
• Bhattarai feels the absence of a parliament grants him immunity from wider scrutiny and accountability.

Baburam’s next move

• So far: CA failed to deliver result.
• President dissolved CA, removed Baburam as PM but asked him to continue as a caretaker PM.
• Baburam promised to hold elections in Nov 2012.
• But elections are not held in November 2012.

Baburam and Prachanda (Maoist party) are trying to gather support of other political party by saying following things:

1. Since we’ve failed to deliver result (Constitution), the UN, India etc. won’t trust us much. And if King Gyanendra tries to make some move, who knows, India might even support him!
2. So, if you don’t support us, then King Gyanendra and monarchy will return. And he’ll take the whole pie by himself. We’ve an enemy in common (King) so support us.
3. Nepal’s public is angry with every political party. So, even if there is election, nobody is going to get clear majority. So why waste truckload of cash in election campaigns? So, Instead of that, let’s do following

• We pass a new resolution to “revive” the existing Constituent Assembly.
• To hell with President, if he opposes, we’ll remove him by passing another resolution!

On the other hand, Nepali Congress (NC) party, is also working to make a second front. What they’ve in mind is something like: “get support of non-leftist forces, Army, upper caste organizations, accept ceremonial monarchy, and get Sushil Koirala elected as Prime Minister.”

This concludes second part in the series. In the third and the last article Click Me, we’ll see:

• Chinese presence in Nepal
• how and why India’s Nepal Policy (2005)=#epicfail.